So now, out of the blue, this happened: US-China trade deal live: Tariffs to be lowered for 90 days, US stock futures rally
It’s not really surprising. Trump has been doing this on-again, off-again tariff bullshit since day one.
But why? I really don’t understand the point unless it’s just political theater—that Trump is a showman, and none of this is real. When push comes to shove, he backs down.
I asked the newest version of Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro to analyze this situation compared to the seemingly terrible results of DOGE: the Department of Government Efficiency. It created a 20-page research paper with 34 references. You can check it out here.
I then gave that paper to ChatGPT 4o and asked it to analyze it. Here is the one-paragraph summary:
The Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and 2025 US-China tariff war both prioritized political theater over real results. DOGE claimed massive cost savings, but independent audits found most were unverifiable and outweighed by economic harm and legal controversies. Meanwhile, the extreme tariff escalation with China triggered inflation, job losses, and GDP decline—only to end in a fragile 90-day truce that solved nothing. Both efforts reflect a governing style focused more on optics and disruption than evidence-based policy or long-term stability.
I’m not sure if it is just telling me what I want to hear. Or maybe the way I asked these AI’s to view these things made it look for certain outcomes. But I sure can’t find anything meaningful to come out of all this drama, other than just drama.
Here’s a more detailed analysis of the research paper from ChatGPT 4o:
Here’s a summary of the report titled “DOGE, Tariffs: Theater or Substance?”:
Executive Summary
The report critically examines two major Trump administration policies:
- The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), and
- The 2025 US-China tariff war and subsequent truce.
It concludes that both were more about political performance than substantive policy outcomes. DOGE’s savings claims are largely unverified and potentially outweighed by the economic damage it caused. Meanwhile, the tariff war caused serious harm to the U.S. economy and ended in a fragile 90-day pause, not a resolution.
DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency)
Mandate vs. Reality
- Claim: Reduce government waste and save taxpayers money.
- Reality: Operated in secrecy, targeted politically inconvenient programs (e.g., DEI, Fauci-related exhibits), and was led by Elon Musk in an unclear legal capacity.
- DOGE engaged in mass layoffs, contract terminations, and surveillance-like data access with little transparency.
Savings Claims vs. Actual Costs
- Claimed savings: $150–$160 billion.
- Verified savings: Only ~$5 billion (less than 0.1% of federal spending).
- Estimated costs:
- $135 billion in workforce disruption.
- $323 billion in projected lost IRS revenue.
- $16 billion annual losses from slashed health research.
Oversight and Legal Challenges
- DOGE is under GAO and Treasury audits, and facing lawsuits for overreach.
- Transparency is lacking; records were scrubbed, and oversight has been obstructed.
Conclusion: DOGE acts more as a political tool than a legitimate cost-cutting reform.
US-China Tariff Escalation and 90-Day Truce
Rapid Escalation (Feb–Apr 2025)
- Tariffs skyrocketed to 145% (U.S.) and 125% (China) in two months—effectively a trade embargo.
- Trump used tariffs as a show of strength but created global market chaos.
Geneva Accord (May 2025)
- A 90-day truce was negotiated, slashing tariffs dramatically (U.S. to 30%, China to 10%).
- Provided market relief, but no structural trade issues were resolved.
Economic Impact
- GDP loss: Estimated 0.6–6% depending on the model.
- Consumer prices: Up 2.9% ($4,700/year per household).
- Job losses: Up to 740,000 projected.
- Trade deficit: Reached record highs.
- Risk of stagflation: Noted by economists and Fed Chair Powell.
Rhetoric vs. Reality
- The administration framed tariffs as patriotic and pro-worker.
- Economists widely condemned them as ineffective, self-damaging, and based on misunderstandings of trade economics.
Performance Over Policy
Both DOGE and tariff strategies exhibit a pattern:
- Ambitious rhetoric unsupported by data.
- Disruption favored over stability.
- Simplistic metrics (e.g., savings, trade deficits) used to mask complexity.
- Policy volatility that undermined public trust and economic certainty.
Experts view these efforts as populist, symbolic gestures aimed more at perception than outcomes.
Recommendations
- Demand transparency and auditability in government claims.
- Base policies on rigorous, evidence-based analysis.
- Promote policy stability to ensure economic confidence.
- Strengthen independent oversight bodies like the GAO.